Northern Ethiopia’s shifting alliances are changing the political and security landscape once again. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Fano militias and Eritrea once stood on different sides of the region’s conflicts. Today, Ethiopia’s federal government says former partners have developed new links, creating fresh tensions across Tigray and Amhara.
_x000D_From 2020 to 2022, the TPLF fought Ethiopia’s federal government in a devastating war. Eritrean troops and Amhara Fano militias supported the federal side during the conflict.
_x000D_The 2022 peace agreement ended the main fighting. However, it did not resolve every political, territorial and security dispute.
_x000D_ _x000D_TPLF Returns to the Center of the Conflict
_x000D_The TPLF remains a major force in Tigray.
_x000D_In March 2025, fighters from the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF), led by Debretsion Gebremichael, took control of several government buildings and towns in and around Mekele. The reported advances included areas close to the Eritrean border.
_x000D_The Africa Center for Strategic Studies has also reported that Eritrean forces continue to control parts of the Irob and Shiraro districts. The 2022 peace agreement called for foreign forces to leave Ethiopian territory.
_x000D_Ethiopia’s federal government has accused elements within the TPLF of working with Eritrea and Fano forces. In October 2025, Ethiopia raised those allegations in a letter to the United Nations.
_x000D_TPLF leader Debretsion rejected the accusations. He described them as fabricated claims and accused the federal government of failing to fully implement the peace agreement.
_x000D_ _x000D_Fano’s Relationship With Addis Ababa Has Changed
_x000D_Fano is not a single militia with one central command. Instead, it consists of several Amhara nationalist armed groups.
_x000D_Fano once fought alongside Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government against the TPLF. Relations later broke down when the government moved to disarm regional forces.
_x000D_Fano groups have since accused Addis Ababa of failing to protect Amhara interests. The conflict has also expanded beyond opposition to disarmament, with some groups calling for wider political change.
_x000D_The changing relationship has added another layer to Ethiopia’s already complicated security situation.
_x000D_ _x000D_Eritrea and Ethiopia Remain at Odds
_x000D_Ethiopia and Eritrea were once close military partners during the Tigray war. Their relationship has since deteriorated.
_x000D_In February, Ethiopia’s federal government acknowledged Eritrean involvement in the Tigray conflict and accused Eritrean forces of serious abuses, including killings, destruction and looting.
_x000D_Eritrea rejected the accusations and called them false.
_x000D_Addis Ababa has also demanded the withdrawal of Eritrean troops from Ethiopian territory. Eritrea, meanwhile, has accused Ethiopia of seeking access to its Red Sea port of Assab.
_x000D_The two countries now face a much more complicated relationship than they had during the earlier war.
_x000D_ _x000D_A Wider Regional Struggle
_x000D_The tensions in northern Ethiopia also connect to wider rivalries across the Horn of Africa.
_x000D_The International Crisis Group has linked Ethiopia’s relationships with Sudanese factions and regional powers to the changing alliances.
_x000D_Eritrea has developed closer ties with Sudan’s army and Egypt. Ethiopia, meanwhile, has faced criticism over its relationships with regional actors linked to Sudan’s conflict.
_x000D_Egypt and Ethiopia also remain divided over the long-running dispute surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Nile water resources.
_x000D_ _x000D_Fresh Fighting Raises New Concerns
_x000D_The latest clashes in western Tigray have raised fears that Ethiopia’s northern conflicts could enter another dangerous phase.
_x000D_The federal government and the TPLF have exchanged accusations over who started the latest fighting.
_x000D_For civilians across Tigray and Amhara, the shifting alliances create fresh uncertainty. The region has already endured years of war, displacement and political instability.
_x000D_The biggest question now is whether Ethiopia’s competing forces can resolve their disputes through negotiations or whether the changing alliances will push northern Ethiopia toward another prolonged conflict.